The Top Line
Earlier today, Premier Doug Ford confirmed the call of Ontario’s 44th general election for February 27th citing a need for a new, large and forceful mandate to defend Ontario and Canada against the threatened tariffs from the United States.
“We need a mandate from the people to fight against Donald Trump’s tariffs, the attack he’s coming against our families, our businesses, our communities – and with a strong mandate, we will be able to fight with Donald Trump to make sure we stop the tariffs and make sure that we give certainty to the people of Ontario,” he said.
Ford said when you have a strong mandate from the people for the next 4 years to parallel the 4 years of the Trump administration, the opposition treats you with a little more respect. “We are in the fight of our lives” he said and emphasized to reporters in Brampton last Friday that it may take investing tens of billions of dollars, and being no different than when his government invested to secure people’s livelihoods in order to protect the people of Ontario during the pandemic.
Ontario was scheduled to go to the polls on June 4, 2026. By calling the election today, Ford is counting on the electorate agreeing with his request for the new mandate to fight Donald Trump, capitalizing on a still weak opposition and taking advantage of the presence of the unpopular federal Liberal leader, Justin Trudeau. A recent Angus Reid poll last month suggested that Trudeau’s approval rating was at an all time low of just 16%.
Additionally, the atmosphere in Ontario will be very busy and clouded as the federal Liberal Party will also be selecting its Leader to replace Trudeau on March 9th.
Premier Ford is the current Chair of the Council of the Federation and will use this position to lead his fellow Premiers to Washington, D.C. on February 12th. With a void in the federal leadership of our country, Ford will again utilize this opportunity to strengthen his position as the person to lead Canada against the likely tariffs imposed by the United States.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, the polls would support Ford’s thinking. The updated 338Canada Ontario projection poll (a summary of all major polls) puts the PCs at 88 seats on average out of 124 seats in the Legislature. Opposition parties are fighting for what’s left with projections showing 20 seats on average for the NDP, 13 for the Liberals, 2 for the Greens and 1 Independent.
While we can expect the campaign to generate some change, if these poll numbers were to hold, it would return the PC Party with a strong majority government for the next 4 years and leave the NDP as Official Opposition in a much more weakened position. The Liberals would regain official Party status, albeit a fragile one (12 seats are needed for official Party status).
The PCs are favored to complete a near-sweep of the province’s rural regions, as well as shut out their rivals in every corner of the GTA. To aid in this, the government announced in the Fall Economic Statement that they are issuing $200 rebate cheques to all taxpayers of record. Getting money from the government can only be seen as an incentive and the cheques are scheduled to arrive in the mail anytime now.
Incumbency also tends to benefit the governing party, especially when interest in the process is low. Based on recent trends and the busy electoral calendar, many are predicting a lower voter turnout than in 2022, when only 43% of eligible voters bothered to cast their vote which was down from 58% in Ford’s first election as PC Leader in 2018.
In a recent report published on Monday, Greg Lyle of Innovative Research Group provided the following:
“But it is also remarkable that, given all the election speculation and a flurry of government announcements, half of Ontarians have heard nothing about the Premier. Unless people pay attention, there is no potential for the numbers to change. And that is exactly what the Premier’s election team is hoping will happen.”
A Deeper Dive
What you can expect to be discussed over the coming 4 weeks:
PC Party
In calling an early election, the Premier expressed that he needs a strong mandate from the people to fight against Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods entering the United States. These proposed tariffs would have a highly adverse effect on Canadian businesses, families and for the Canadian economy as a whole.
In an Op-ed piece published in the National Post yesterday, Premier Ford said “We need to be clear-eyed about the risk. Whether he imposes tariffs next week, next month or waits a year, President Trump’s threats are not going away and are already taking a toll on our economy. He’s promised to use economic force to get his way. He’s even mused about taking over Canadian territory. Canada is not for sale. Not to President Trump, not to anyone.”
The Premier has been a strong voice against the proposed tariffs. During last week’s press conference, the Premier cited the lack of leadership at the federal level and the need for strong leadership in Canada, during a time when we do not know who the Prime Minister will be. The Premier said he will do anything to protect the people of Ontario and that “we are the engine of Canada protecting all Canadians” citing he will not back down.
The PC Party will also be relying on its record in government since 2018 to convince the electorate that they are the only choice to govern Ontario at this time. They have built and re-built numerous hospitals and health care facilities across the province and just this week announced $1.8 billion to connect every person in Ontario to a family doctor and primary care teams within 4 years – a promise now made by all the major parties.
“The people will have a choice in the next 30 days if they want to go backwards to the dark days and the gloom and doom that we all experienced in 15 years under the Liberal and NDP rule that 300,000 people lost their jobs. Let’s look at the last close to 7 years, there’s over 850,000 people working today that didn’t have a job 7 years ago,” Ford said.
On infrastructure, they are moving ahead with investments totalling more than $100 billion in highway expansions and growth including the new Highway 413 and the Bradford by-pass. In Toronto and the GTHA they are expanding transit with major projects underway in Toronto, Mississauga and Hamilton.
Ford has been criticized for spending $160 million on a needless election. You can question the timing but regardless of when the election takes place, it will still cost the same amount.
NDP Party
NDP Party Leader, Marit Stiles and the Ontario NDP are positioning themselves as continuing to be the primary opposition party, emphasizing their commitment to equity, social justice, and public investment. A significant challenge for the NDP will be distinguishing themselves from the Ontario Liberals as the most viable and competent alternative to the PCs.
Stiles has emphasized investing in public health care, and ensuring access to family doctors, mental health care, and other essential services. She advocates for higher wages and better working conditions for frontline health care workers to stabilize the workforce.
The NDP plans to tackle the housing crisis by significantly increasing the construction of affordable housing, and introducing rent controls to protect tenants.
Stiles highlights her party’s commitment to making life more affordable, including plans to raise the minimum wage to $20 an hour, expand paid sick days, and capping child care fees for families. The NDP also advocates for stronger protections for workers, including unionized and gig workers.
In a recent announcement, the Ontario NDP pledged to remove some tolls from the privately owned Highway 407. (It is unclear how they would do this to a privately-owned property). Stiles criticized Premier Ford for inaction on rising tolls, stating, “Doug Ford has sat on his hands as tolls on the 407 have gone up, afraid to take on the private corporation that makes millions from people just trying to get to work.”
In recent statements, Stiles has urged Ontarians to choose a government that stands with working people, emphasizing that Premier Ford has consistently sided with wealthy insiders; and that the Ontario NDP aim to present a hopeful and ambitious vision for the province.
Liberal Party
Bonnie Crombie and the Ontario Liberal Party will seek to position themselves as a strong alternative to Premier Doug Ford’s government, with a focus on improving health care, housing affordability, tax relief and sustainability.
The challenge for the Ontario Liberals will be to be heard by the electorate as Doug Ford rides his Captain Canada persona as the best response to Trump’s tariff threats. Crombie will have to use the election as an opportunity to raise her profile, but will be compared at every turn as a supporter of Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax, and she will need to find a way past this description if she wants to have any chance of having an impact in the election outcome.
Crombie will focus on her response to the province’s healthcare crisis, the need to reduce wait times, and the need to ensure access to family doctors across Ontario. Crombie has promised to implement significant investments in hospitals, long-term care, and frontline healthcare workers to ease the pressure on Ontario’s overwhelmed healthcare system.
The Party platform will outline how an Ontario Liberal government will tackle the housing affordability crisis by increasing the supply of homes, particularly by building more affordable and rental housing options.
Crombie will continue to promote her plan to introduce historic tax cuts and seek to take the mantle of tax relief from Doug Ford and the Conservatives. She has already committed to a government that will cut the income tax rate for middle-class Ontario families and eliminate the HST on home heating and hydro bills.
And on the environment, Crombie will not support any form of consumer-facing carbon tax while outlining the ways in which her government will support green energy and transition Ontario to a more sustainable economy.
Green Party
Green Party leader, Mike Schreiner, has issued statements calling out the Premier on wanting to protect his job before those of the province. The Green Party of Ontario emphasizes the need to not work with corporations, and instead focus on local community champions.
Schreiner has emphasized his party’s focus on healthcare with a focus on hiring thousands of doctors and nurse practitioners, reversing privatization, harmonizing wages for health care workers to increase staff capacity, and increasing provincial funding for hospitals and rural health teams.
Impact on Advocacy and Looking Ahead
Winter elections are difficult as the weather often plays havoc with campaign events, door-knocking and even trying to put campaign signs in the frozen ground. Candidates will have to work harder to gain attention and raise their profiles. Voters and volunteers are more likely to stay home at night rather than attend events in the winter weather.
Queen’s Park will be a ghost town during the election period with all MPP’s in their ridings campaigning for re-election. With the issuance of the election writ today, all government business before the Legislature is terminated.
Following the election on February 27th, tradition indicates that the Premier-elect will present his Cabinet approximately 2-3 weeks later. This is also the likely date to announce the return of the legislature which rose for its regular break on December 12th last year. Although tentatively scheduled to return on March 3rd, look for the government to return sometime in April for an abbreviated sitting until early June 2025.
It is very likely that the government will also seek to bring in an economic statement or even a budget. They will have received a new mandate and will need to indicate the economic road going forward for 2025. This is likely to be the focus for the spring session.
The government will certainly have new priorities which will be formalized soon after the election concludes. This may necessitate new staff with different skill sets. All this will be worked out but look for it to take up to six months.
Key Seats to Watch
A number of seats across the province can provide some indication of where the outcome of the election is likely to go:
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte – Incumbent and Attorney General Doug Downey, MPP is being contested by Liberal candidate Dr. Rose Zacharias, a family doctor who is also a Past President of the Ontario Medical Association – a significant provincial profile, but less known in the riding. Downey only won in 2022 by approximately 600 votes.
Similarly, in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, incumbent Christine Hogarth, MPP faces health care leader and past President of St. Mary’s General Hospital, Lee Fairclough – Hogarth only won by 1.6% in 2022 and the riding is known as a swing riding that will generally go with the party that has momentum.
Eglinton-Lawrence – held since 2018 by PC Robin Martin MPP, it is generally regarded as a Liberal riding. There is no incumbent as Martin is not running again. The riding had been held by the Liberals for the 20 years prior to Martin’s victory in 2018. Vince Gasparro, a former Principal Secretary to Mayor John Tory is running for the Liberals.
York-South Weston – The Premier’s nephew, Michael Ford is not seeking re-election opening up this riding to previous NDP MPP Faisal Hassan who is running again.
Mississauga East-Cooksville – Liberal Party Leader Bonnie Crombie announced Tuesday that she will run here. It is her first attempt to be elected in the province since becoming Leader in December 2023. A victory will signal the start of a comeback for the Liberal Party while a loss will certainly end her political career.
Haldimand-Norfolk – a Tory stronghold until 2022 when independent Bobbie-Ann Brady won. Brady had been a long-time staffer to the local PC member but a disagreement on the party’s candidate of choice led to her running as an independent. Look for her to be re-elected but a PC upset here would signal a strong PC majority victory across the province.
The Bottom Line
We will have a provincial election in Ontario on Thursday February 27, 2025.
Despite being some 16 months ahead of the scheduled campaign, Premier Ford and the PC Party are expected to be easily re-elected. In short, everything is lined up in their favour. It is likely that voter turnout will hit an all-time low and that few Ontarians will even be paying attention to the campaign. Ford will be doing what he does best which is getting out and meeting with the people.
Bonnie Crombie, Liberal Leader for the past 14 months is seeking her first seat in the Ontario Legislature in Mississauga East-Cooksville. While she is expected to win, it remains to be seen if she can bring other liberals with her. By not having a seat in the legislature since becoming Leader, she has been largely out of sight and beyond her native Mississauga, she remains relatively unknown.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles is entering her first election as a Party leader. She has been relatively ineffective as the leader of the Official Opposition in the legislature and maintains a low-profile among Ontarians, repeatedly being ignored as a potential Premier. Look for a drop in NDP seats and a close battle with the Liberals for official Opposition status.
Elections matter and while it is one thing to say today where things will likely go, it may be a different story in 4 weeks. Every party is represented by 124 candidates and thousands of volunteers. It just takes one incident or controversy to change momentum or create a new storyline.
Look for Ford to take a conservative, safe approach while setting the agenda. The others will have to challenge Ford’s record and hope they find a niche that can make a difference and set them apart with voters.
