The Early Election
Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford called a provincial election some 16 months early under the pretense that he needed a mandate to take on President Trump and his pending trade tariffs on Canada. With a leadership vacuum in Ottawa and as Chair of the Council of the Federation (Canada’s Premiers), Ford assumed the role of “Captain Canada” and in that light justified the early election.
Ford called the election on January 29th with a 16-point lead in Nanos polling and throughout the campaign period Ford maintained a comfortable lead, never dipping below a 12-point lead. Last night’s election results confirmed the polling numbers.
Ford calculated that this was the right time to go to the polls: he needed a mandate to be able to lead against President Trump; there was political confusion across the country as the Prime Minister had announced his resignation; the federal Liberal Party was in the midst of a leadership race and it was the depth of winter in Canada – Ontarians weren’t paying attention.
Additionally, there were two debates – one on the Friday afternoon of a long weekend and the other on the Monday night of the same long weekend. And if that wasn’t enough to overwhelm any media coverage of the election race, Ontario had a massive snowstorm on the same weekend and an unfortunate plane crash on the Monday afternoon – meaning the Ontario leader’s debates were barely covered.
Opposition Leader Marit Stiles of the NDP had the burden of a floundering federal party that added to her woes in Ontario. Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie started the campaign largely unknown having chosen not to contest a seat for the legislature for over a year since being elected Party Leader.
So, all this adds up to a political environment that was heavily favoured for the Progressive Conservatives. Unlike previous Leaders who went to the electorate early for political opportunism, Ford correctly gauged the impact of President Trump and his pending tariffs on Canada and specifically Ontario. Voters agreed that he was right to go to the polls for a new mandate at this time.
The Top Line
We are in unprecedented times in Canada, or the world for that matter. While our political situation sorts itself out domestically, we need to be conscious of the imposing impact of the President of the United States. Relations between our two countries are as poor as we have seen in recent memory and the future is unclear. This uncertainty created the environment that allowed Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives to sweep to a third majority government.
As expected, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party won the most seats in yesterday’s provincial election and will now form a third consecutive majority government. The unofficial results are:
- Progressive Conservative 80
- NDP 27
- Liberal 14
- Green 2
- Independent 1
Leading from start to finish, Ford gambled on the timing of the election, winning easily in an election that had a surprising voter turnout of 45.40% – higher than 2022 and higher than predicted by many.
Ford correctly judged the complacent mood of the Ontario electorate. Neither Opposition party was able to break through and create a reason for change. The strong majority means that the PC government will not have to rely on any other party in order to pass legislation. The electorate has decided that there will be no change. With the new mandate, look for the government to step up its attack on the pending U.S. tariffs, while offering billions of dollars of incentives to businesses to stay in Canada and specifically Ontario.
A Deeper Dive
Last night’s results contained positive results for the Progressive Conservative Party, but mixed results for the others.
PC Party
As expected by mainstream polls, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative party won a third term majority government with 43% of the vote translating into 80 seats. The Premier had called for a new mandate from the people in light of the threat of President Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canadian goods entering the United States. Ford has been at the forefront of this, making it clear Canada and particularly Ontario, will not stand for this without a fight. The new mandate allows him to continue in this role.
The people of Ontario resonated with Ford’s message to protect Ontario from President Trump’s tariffs and the effect it would have on businesses, communities and families. Ford has promoted his government as being for the people by declaring that Ontario is “open for business” and “open for jobs.” and now has a governing mandate through June 2029.
We can expect a new Cabinet to be announced in the next 12-15 days reflecting a very similar look to the previous Cabinet. Then, the Legislature is likely to be reconvened, having not sat since December 2024. This could happen as early as late March, but more likely later in the spring.
An immediate priority will be to continue working with the federal government and Premiers across Canada to fight against the U.S tariffs, fulfilling the earned mandate from the electorate.
Additionally, the government will need to bring forward a budget within weeks of its swearing in. This will reflect the anticipated spending to offset President Trump’s tariffs, not unlike previous spending to stave of pending recessions.
Ontario NDP
This election saw the NDP maintain their Official Opposition status in the Legislature. If there was a surprise in the results, this was it as most polls showed the NDP in third place. However, with a strong ground game, they took their 27 seats with just 19% of the vote. Party Leader Marit Stiles, failed to show a reason for change and was greatly overshadowed by the federal NDP’s floundering ways that reflected badly on the Party.
The Party seemed to miss what voters in Ontario wanted – leadership.
The Party platform outlined the party’s commitment to fight rising costs, build homes, hire doctors, fix schools, and fight for Ontario jobs – a platform very similar to the Liberal Party and over-lapping with the PC’s as well – there simply was no reason for voters to change to the NDP.
Stiles emphasized her plan for a monthly grocery rebate, promised to freeze taxes for 98% of Ontarians and to lead “a government that will be on your side”.
The Party also had to deal with internal challenges including the candidate for Eglinton-Lawrence in Toronto, who pulled out of the race at the last minute in an attempt to stop the PC candidate by throwing her support behind the Liberal candidate. It was too late for the NDP to find a replacement and the strategy backfired as the PC’s held the seat.
Last week the candidate for the riding of Elgin-Middlesex-London also dropped out after controversial remarks she made as a caucasian woman wanting to be a black woman.
These withdrawals were somewhat consistent with the Party’s loss of sitting MPP’s during the last term which raised concerns of trustworthiness within the leadership of the Party.
Ontario Liberal Party
The Ontario Liberal Party made a small comeback in the 2025 election, but the real story was Leader Bonnie Crombie failing to win her seat in the Legislature. Even though the Party secured 30% of the vote, they were only able to win 14 seats across the province, albeit enough to regain official Party status for the first time since 2018. This will now provide added resources for outreach, advocacy and research.
Crombie’s loss, in a central riding in Mississauga where she was Mayor for 10 years is a major blow to her political future. Although committing last night to stay on as Leader, there will be calls for her resignation. Without a seat in the legislature, her exposure will be limited and her leadership compromised. As Leader for more than a year, she has never sat in the Legislature as Party Leader, a strategy that contributed to her poor showing last night.
Green Party of Ontario
The Green Party of Ontario held on to representation with their two seats in Guelph and Kitchener Centre. Despite generating interest in some other ridings, the party was unable to secure any new seats.
Breaking through Ontario’s electoral system remains a challenge as they look to build on this foundation for 2029.
Impact on Advocacy and Looking Ahead
The Ford government’s re-election will have no significant impact on the key players and decision-makers within it. There will likely only be minor changes in the make-up of the Cabinet with many senior Ministers being re-appointed to their positions.
The Cabinet is expected to be sworn-in by the middle of March and the Legislature is likely to be re-called sometime before the end of April with a Speech from the Throne and the 2025 Budget. The House should then sit through until June 5th following the parliamentary calendar. This will provide a very busy 6-8 weeks for outreach and advocacy.
Files impacted by trade and the Canada-U.S. relationship will be prioritized. Stakeholders will want to ensure the Ford government understands how various trade measures (and tariffs) may impact their businesses so that these can be considered as part of government engagements at both the federal and provincial levels and in direct communications with the U.S. federal and state governments.
In their Party platform, the PC’s indicated that the budget will reflect additional spending to compensate for the U.S. tariffs and to encourage businesses to remain in Ontario. Look for a budget well in excess of last year when there was an overall budget of $214.5 billion with almost a $10 billion deficit.
As indicated in the PC platform during the election, Premier Ford and his government will focus on some key areas.
These include building Ontario’s economy including tax relief and additional investment while reducing trade barriers and increasing labour mobility. The PCs also promised to protect workers; open the Ring of Fire in northern Ontario; expand nuclear energy in the province; and, maintain the support to make Ontario the electric car capital of the world.
The PC’s promised to deliver better health care by investing $50 billion in new hospitals, $1.8 billion to give everyone access to a family doctor by 2029 and training and hiring more health care workers. Ford will also focus to join governments across the land to protect our border from illegal immigration and drug flows.
Of course, the wild card in this planning are the actions of the U.S. government. The U.S. President, and his varied announcements, dominated the election talk and Premier Ford has vowed to fight any and all tariffs and now has the mandate to do so.
On the opposition side, the NDP will be the dominant player in holding the government to account. The Liberals’ regaining official party status will provide new opportunities to meet and engage, although as third Party, they will have limited opportunities to impact government policy direction in a large majority government environment.
The Bottom Line
The Ontario Government will have an extremely strong mandate to fight the U.S. tariffs that are being promoted by President Trump.
President Trump is making outlandish statements on a daily basis that are loaded with errors and misconceptions and yet he is pushing forward. His timelines continue to change and the opposition to his announcements continues to build. This is unlikely to change and will be a significant challenge to the Government of Ontario and all governments around the world. However, as the most integrated government, Canada stands to be the most impacted.
For decades, regardless of political stripe, Canada and the United States have maintained a strong relationship. President Trump appears to want to end that practice and is taking advantage of federal Canadian leadership challenges. With a federal vacuum, there is no official spokesperson for the country and this is unlikely to be resolved until well into the spring.
In the short term, Premier Ford has vowed to lead his fellow Premiers against the proposed U.S. tariffs. He will be working with the others, including the federal government to match tariffs where we can.
The people of Ontario have given him the right to do so.
Key Seat Changes
Progressive Conservatives:
- Bill Rosenberg (Algoma-Manitoulin) Gain
- George Darouze (Carleton) Gain
- Monica Ciriello (Hamilton Mountain) Gain
- Sylvia Gualtieri (Mississauga East – Cooksville) Gain
- Michelle Cooper (Eginton-Lawrence) Hold
- Mohamed Firin (York South – Weston) Hold
- Patrice Barnes (Ajax) Loss
- Christine Hogarth (Etobicoke Lakeshore) Loss
Liberals:
- Rob Cerjanec (Ajax) Gain
- Jonatan Tsao (Don Valley North) Gain
- Lee Fairclough (Etobicoke Lakeshore) Gain
- Tyler Watt (Nepean) Gain
- Stephanie Smyth (Toronto-St. Pauls) Gain
- Bonnie Crombie (Mississauga East – Cooksville) Loss
Independents:
- Bobby Ann Brady (Haldimand-Norfolk) Hold
- Vincent Ke (Don Valley North) Loss
- Michael Mantha (Algoma-Manitoulin) Loss
