The Top Line
Federal Parliament resumes sitting this week, and will function as a true minority Parliament for effectively the first time since Election 2021. Since March 2022, the Liberal – NDP Confidence and Supply Agreement (CASA) has allowed the Liberals to govern as a de facto majority; being highly certain of NDP support on confidence votes, House of Commons procedure (crucially including limiting debate and filibusters), and many policies. That is now out the window.
As the House of Commons begins sitting today (the Senate will follow tomorrow), the NDP has indicated it will determine support for the Government on a vote-by-vote basis. Meanwhile, the Conservatives – as is logical for a party that is 15 to 20 points ahead of its nearest rival in public support – have indicated they favour an election as soon as possible, and will advance confidence motions to attempt to topple the Government.
As such, stakeholders should expect a very unstable Parliament this Fall, with a lot of politicking on every vote and regular uncertainty about if the governing Liberals can maintain the confidence of the House and avoid an election, which – as of this writing – would almost certainly bring about a change in government.
Constant election speculation should also be expected through the rest of 2024 – as is the norm for most minority Parliaments. However, the NDP has signaled through its Leader Jagmeet Singh and senior political staff that it isn’t proactively seeking to trigger an election this Fall and the Bloc Québecois says its willing to support the Government in exchange for policy concessions. As such, we believe an election is unlikely to occur in the next four months unless the strategic calculus of the NDP changes dramatically.
That said, there are events on the horizon – including two by-elections occurring today and the final report from the Foreign Interference Commission that could damage the Liberals and make the NDP more eager for an election. As well, stakeholders should watch for any sustained improvement in the NDP’s in polling and fundraising performance, and consider NDP success on those fronts to be an election harbinger. To date, the NDP have not benefited much from the reduction in public support for the Liberals, but that could change.
In any case, stakeholders must now adapt quickly to a frank reality. Even if the CASA was still in place, the Liberal government would be entering its final months of governing with a sitting Parliament. With only up to 9 months’ worth of sitting days – and likely fewer – remaining in this Parliament, the amount of legislating and regulation-making the Trudeau government can still accomplish is minimal. In that context, the Liberals will have to make choices about policy prioritization and political appeal of their initiatives – and those engaged in government relations should do the same.
A Closer Look at Key Issues
Confidence Motions
As discussed throughout this analysis, the specific moment of the Government’s fall – if and when it comes – will be dictated by confidence votes in the House (unless the Prime Minister himself asks the Governor General to dissolve Parliament, which is highly unlikely in current circumstances). Major confidence votes this Fall will be on the Main Estimates, Budget Implementation Act II, and the Fall Economic Statement 2024 (if there is legislation attached to it). Stakeholders should expect even more increased politicking and uncertainty when those matters are before the House. As well, Opposition Parties can introduce Confidence motions on ‘Opposition Days’ (sitting days when the Opposition is given control of Parliament’s agenda). The Conservatives are determined to do that, so one or more such votes will occur. However, the Government controls allocation of Opposition Days, and the Liberals haven’t yet given any indication of when the days will occur.
In that context, uncertainty is the name of the game. In minority Parliaments, elections can and have occurred due to miscalculation and communication errors. As mentioned, current circumstances do not lend themselves to an election occurring this Fall, but the Liberals’ ability to maintain the confidence of the House will depend on the circumstances at the times of confidence votes. As such, stakeholders should closely monitor the political (polling, fundraising, Leader approval ratings) fortunes of the various Parties in order to assess Parliamentary stability on an ongoing basis.
The Legislative Agenda and Committees
As of this writing, there are 15 government Bills before the House of Commons (including at various House Committees). Without the guaranteed help of the NDP – especially for limiting debate and filibusters – it will be difficult for the Liberals to pass those Bills.
For stakeholders impacted by a Bill currently before the House, one of your first priorities should be working with Ministerial contacts to determine if the Bill remains a government priority, in order to base an advocacy strategy or a redirection of efforts on that information.
At particular risk of not passing are the Bills – such as the Digital Charter Implementation Act – that are currently before House Committees and Bills that may advance to that stage in the coming weeks. Without the guaranteed collaboration of the NDP to move legislation through Committees, it is likely that any legislation that is opposed strongly by the Conservatives will not do so. For a sign of how all Committees may (not) work this Fall, consider that, last Fall and Winter, the Conservatives filibustered the Natural Resources Committee for weeks to delay the passage of the Sustainable Jobs Act. Without the active support of the NDP member of that Committee, that Act probably wouldn’t have passed, and that will be the fate of more pieces of legislation before Committees this Fall. Conversely, Committees will likely be more prone to take up investigations of the Government, in the absence of NDP assistance to mitigate any such Conservative-driven initiatives.
Fall Economic Statement 2024 and Budget 2025
As has been the case since late 2022, high inflation and the possibility of a recession remain the key economic context for Canadian politics. Figuring out if and how to spend in politically important areas while balancing inflationary pressures will be the main challenge for Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland as she prepares the Fall Economic Statement 2024 and Budget 2025.
Meanwhile, the NDP has laid out several conditions for its potential continued support of the Government – specifically, caps on some grocery prices, banning renovictions, and limiting corporate landlords – that are likely to find their way into the Fall Statement and Budget. Stakeholders impacted by those issues should engage heavily on the Budget consultation process.
All those engaged in government relations must realize the Fall Statement and Budget are almost certainly the last significant opportunities to engage the Government on major new spending and policies. As such, for lobbying resources not being re-allocated to opposition engagement, a heavy focus on the Budget consultation process should be prioritized.
Climate Policy
The Liberal Party has long prioritized and trumpeted its climate policy agenda, but the Trudeau government has been on the backfoot in that policy area for at least a year now. This Fall, the Liberals are now nearly completely isolated on the policy of consumer carbon pricing (after the Federal and BC NDP both recently disavowed consumer-facing carbon taxes) and are facing major decisions about whether or not to move forward with a proposed oil and gas emissions cap and Clean Electricity Regulations. Major new ambition in this policy area should not be expected of the Liberals, and delivery of the aforementioned cap and regulations will be hard-won, requiring substantial lobbying pushes and risking negative attention from the Conservatives.
Foreign Interference Commission
The public inquiry into foreign interference in Canadian elections is due to wrap up with a final report in December 2024. The inquiry has faded from the public and political discourse in recent months, but will likely flair up again in the coming weeks as the Prime Minister is due to testify to the inquiry again. Looking ahead, the content of the final report of the inquiry, and how it is covered by the media, is likely to be a major factor in how the Opposition Parties approach the resumption of Parliament in February, and whether or not to vote non-confidence in the Government at that time.
What’s Next – Prioritization of Lobbying Goals
The House of Commons will be busy and chaotic – but likely very slow moving – through the end of the year, and Federal politics over the same period will be contentious. The next nine months (through June 2025, at the maximum) is the final opportunity to advance priorities with the current government. However, opposition relationship-building – including putting ideas forward for election platforms – should continue to be increasingly prioritized, given current polling. In the immediate future, watch for the results of the two by-elections tonight. A Liberal loss in Lasalle – Émard – Verdun in particular will be devastating for the Liberals, and could begin to shift NDP incentives for an election while emboldening those within the Liberal Party who would like to push the Prime Minister to step aside for a new Leader.
