The Top Line
This morning, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he will resign as Liberal Party of Canada Leader and Prime Minister, effective as of when the Party selects a new Leader. Concurrently, the Prime Minister indicated the Governor General granted a request to prorogue Parliament until March 24, and that he asked the Liberal Party President to launch a leadership race.
Liberal Leadership
During his press conference, the Prime Minister acknowledged he has become “consumed in internal Liberal Party battles,” and framed his resignation as a chance to remove the contention around his continued leadership.
Ultimately, it seems clear Mr. Trudeau understood there is no longer a political path for him to maintain leadership of the Liberals, primarily because a majority of the Party’s Members of Parliament (MPs) no longer want him in that role. More broadly, public support for the Liberals began a steady decline in Summer 2023 and has not recovered at all – let alone to a point where Mr. Trudeau could feel confident contesting an election. While the Prime Minister may nonetheless have still thought of himself as the best Liberal option to fight the next election, it became obvious over the holidays that even his own caucus did not agree with that assessment.
The next significant milestone on the political calendar will likely come later this week, when the Liberal Party National Board of Directors meets to decide the rules and timing of the leadership race. The new Leader will almost certainly have to be chosen prior to March 24, the date of the return of Parliament.
Foundationally, the Liberal Leader may only be selected by registered Party members, with candidate support measured on a weighted points score across every riding. That means, given the likely very short runway to the day of the leadership vote, that a successful candidate needs to already have a national profile and the ability to communicate in French.
There may yet be unexpected entrants to or exits from the leadership race – which has been quietly underway for some time. Those known to have tested the waters include Anita Anand, Mark Carney, François-Philippe Champagne, Christy Clark, Chrystia Freeland, Dominic LeBlanc, Mélanie Joly, and Jonathan Wilkinson. Stakeholders should expect the serious leadership contestants to come from that list, though it is unlikely all of them will end up running or staying in the race until its conclusion.
Prorogation of Parliament
Parliament was scheduled to resume sitting during the final week of January, but will now do so on March 24. During a prorogation – defined as the termination of a Parliamentary session – the business of Parliament ceases. Upon reconvening, the House of Commons almost always (barring the agreement of a majority of MPs) begins with a fresh Order of Business.
In plain language, that means all Government Bills (though not Private Members’ Bills – or PMBs) that were being debated by the House will almost certainly now “die” and all House Committees will cease operations until late-March. When Parliament is recalled, all Committees will need to be reconstituted, which usually takes three to four weeks. In the Senate, more-or-less the same process occurs – although Senate PMBs, unlike their House equivalents, die due to prorogation.
During his press conference, the Prime Minister suggested the prorogation is an opportunity to bring the temperature of Canadian politics down and break the gridlock that had completely derailed standard legislative business during the Fall 2024 session. Regardless of if that actually occurs, the prorogation practically ensures government stability during the Liberal leadership race that must now occur.
Election Considerations
Following the coming Liberal leadership race, the new Party Leader and Prime Minister will inherit a very unstable government. Notably, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh held a press conference today where he definitively stated the NDP will vote non-confidence in the Government at the earliest opportunity. Given that the NDP has so far been the only consistent source of support for the Liberal minority government, there is very limited room for the new Prime Minister to manoeuvre prior to the 2025 election.
With the Liberals trailing by 20+ points in public polling, the Conservatives must still be considered the favourite to win that election – regardless of who wins leadership of the Liberal Party. The new Liberal Leader’s most urgent tasks will be to “right the ship” to the best possible degree and highlight their new personal and policy vision for the Party.
Parliament will resume sitting by March 24 at the latest (the length of prorogation can be shortened at the discretion of the Prime Minister).
At that time, the Liberal government will almost immediately need to conduct a vote on government supply (authorization of spending) in order to facilitate public sector expenditures into fiscal year 2025/26. The business of supply is a confidence matter, so the Government could fall on the date of that vote. If that occurs, a governance tool known as Governor General’s special warrants would be used to fund Federal expenses that are “urgently required for the public good” during the subsequent election, so there is no potential of essential government programs and operations running out of funds.
If the Liberals manage to get the support of at least one Opposition Party to pass the supply vote, they would then soon have to grant some Opposition Days (when Opposition Parties control the agenda of the House). On those days, an Opposition Party can table a motion of non-confidence in the Government – and all have now stated publicly they no longer have confidence in the Government.
In that context – barring a new political bargain on confidence and supply between the Liberals and the NDP or Bloc Québecois, which seems unlikely based on comments made by those Party Leaders today – the 2025 election will occur in April or May. However, given the time crunch and polling hole in which the Liberals find themselves, it is quite likely the new Prime Minister will at least attempt to negotiate with the NDP or Bloc to achieve confidence of the House and push back that timeframe for the election.
What This Means For You
All Opposition Party reaction to Mr. Trudeau’s announcement argued that the problems with the Liberal government go beyond the Prime Minister; extending to every Liberal Minister and the broad priorities of the Government. The Conservative and Bloc Québecois reactions called for an immediate election, while the NDP said it would vote non-confidence in the Government at the earliest opportunity. Overall, the Opposition Parties have immediately turned their attention to election positioning and broad political criticisms of the Liberal leadership contestants.
Despite the drama of the day, the fundamental parameters of Federal politics have not shifted. The next election would have occurred sometime this year no matter what, and the Conservatives remain heavily favoured to win that election. While a new Liberal Leader could close the public polling gap, they could also stumble and underperform the support that Mr. Trudeau retained.
As such, stakeholders should continue prioritizing Conservative outreach, especially regarding proposing policies for inclusion in the Party’s election platform and (likely) post-election Ministerial mandates. For stakeholders working on policy issues that have a long horizon, strategic engagement of Liberal leadership contestants could be beneficial. An ultimate decision on approaches to leadership lobbying can be best made when the candidates are confirmed.
At the same time, keep in mind that there are still issues the Executive Branch of the Federal government can and must address while Parliament is prorogued. For such issues, stakeholders should continue to engage key Ministers, their staff, the Office of the Prime Minister, and sitting MPs.
