The Top Line
This week, the issue of Canada – United States (U.S.) relations – and to a lesser extent cost-of-living, taxation and housing affordability – continued to dominate Federal Election 2025. The Parties cannot (and in some cases, do not want to) escape the gravitational pull of those issues, so the election is likely to be decided by voter prioritization of those ballot box questions and how voters perceive each Party leader’s ability to address them.
The vast majority of the polls that were conducted and/or published this week show a Liberal lead, though there remains substantial disagreement between polls about the size of that lead, and there are some dissenting voices showing a small Conservative lead. Notably though, a great many polls show the Liberals leading in Atlantic Canada, Québec, and Ontario, giving the Party a significant structural advantage on the path to forming government, given how many ridings are in those Provinces.
Leaders’ Week in Review
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre campaigned in North York and Winnipeg last weekend, before sweeping through Atlantic Canada during the week. He also held business and industry-focused events in Toronto, Oshawa and Kingston, including a rally at a Kingston business park. Those regions, in particular Atlantic Canada, are largely areas where the Party hopes to pick up seats on Election Day, so they remain on the offensive.
Recent Conservative policy announcements were: A proposal to create a national energy corridor, a promised tax cut for tradespeople, and pledging to eliminate the annual tax increase on alcohol. Overall, while also seeking to create space for himself in the tariff conversation, Mr. Poilievre is spotlighting the Conservatives’ plans to support domestic natural resources and economic development, while arguing that the Liberals neglected those issues during a “lost decade” in power.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney campaigned in Toronto, Scarborough, Hamilton, Winnipeg, and Montreal this week – all riding-rich regions that typically play a big part in deciding which party forms government. He also swapped into his role as Prime Minister for a few days, meeting with the Premier of Manitoba, the Federal Cabinet Committee on Canada – U.S. relations, and the Provincial Premiers to discuss Canada’s response to the U.S. ‘reciprocal’ tariffs and automobile tariffs.
Recent Liberal campaign policy pledges include a proposal to majorly involve the Federal Government in building and financing housing, a plan to support the agri-food sector in the face of American tariffs, and a promise to increase funding for the CBC. Overall, the Liberal campaign continues to seek to drive a contrast with Pierre Poilievre on trade and national identity issues, in a clear strategy to capitalize on the apparent political advantage for Prime Minister Carney in how voters perceive his ability to address the currently challenging Canada – U.S. relationship.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet held events this week in Sherbrooke, Québec City and area, and the Gaspé Peninsula. The Bloc must hold or pick-up seats in those areas in order to hold a significant share of seats in the next Parliament. Meanwhile, the Bloc became the first Party to publish its platform, which included some staunch climate and environmental pledges and commitments to seek supports and protections for Quebec industries and culture in the context of the Trump Presidency. Bloc policy in those areas could yet be decisive in a minority Parliament, post-election.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh spent the week in Ottawa, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Victoria. Facing low support in public polling, this is the second consecutive week that the NDP has campaigned in urban locations where the Party must retain seats in order to have a functional presence in the next Parliament. In that context, the campaign has sought to portray the NDP as key to ensuring that other parties advance progressive priorities when in government and on painting the Liberals and Conservatives as out of touch with voters.
Recent NDP campaign pledges include proposals to create Victory Bonds to fund public infrastructure and to allocate more Federal funding for energy efficient home retrofits by eliminating public subsidies to the oil and gas sector.
What This Means to You
As of today, the Liberals appear favoured to win the election, but small shifts in support for the other parties could dramatically change that picture. While daily policy announcements will continue, look for both the Conservatives and Liberals to release their full election platforms in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, stakeholders should be preparing priorities, strategies, and messaging for either a Conservative or Liberal government, as well as a to-do list for what promises to be a very busy transition into a new government and Spring sitting of Parliament.
