The Top Line
The Federal election campaign ramped up quickly this week, with Party leaders traveling to multiple regions of the country and issuing dueling policy pledges. As expected, the issues of Canada – United States (U.S.) relations, cost-of-living, and housing affordability dominated week 1 of the campaign.
On the former, Mark Carney and the Liberals were gifted significant news coverage over the past two days, as the Prime Minister left the campaign trail to convene a Cabinet meeting regarding Canada’s response to new U.S. tariffs on Canadian autos and to hold a telephone call with President Trump. On cost-of-living and housing affordability, the parties were clearly vying for voters’ approval early in the campaign, with the Liberals and Conservatives pledging to cut income taxes, the Conservatives and Liberals proposing to eliminate the GST on some homes (while the NDP chose Canadian cars), and the Conservatives and NDP promising to allocate more Federal properties to housing.
To date, no party has published a full policy platform, though the Conservatives issued a brief Quebec-specific platform. While platforms will be rolled out soon, given that the Trump administration intends to announce even more tariffs on April 2, we expect the issues of Canada – U.S. trade and which Party Leader is best-suited to lead Canada during the Trump Presidency to continue to be the key battle lines of the campaign.
Meanwhile, it’s status quo on polling, with the Liberals now leading the popular vote – at least slightly – in every national poll published over the past week. However, the election outcome remains a relatively close contest between the Liberals and Conservatives. Support for all other parties remains very low, but small shifts in those figures – particularly by the Bloc Québécois in Quebec – could have outsized impacts on the election outcome and the nature of the resulting Parliament.
Leaders’ Week in Review
Liberal Leader Mark Carney began the campaign in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, before traveling to Windsor and Montreal. As mentioned, he stopped in Ottawa in the meantime to do some governing on the U.S. relations file. Since the auto tariffs occurred mid-week, the Liberal campaign was able to focus for several days on the issue on which they expect to outperform Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives – responding to President Trump and his tariffs. Complementing that, Liberal announcements spotlighted financial support for the autos sector and re-investing in the Canadian Armed Forces.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre kicked off the campaign in the National Capital Region. He then spent Monday and Tuesday in Toronto, Hamilton, and area, before traveling to Quebec City, Coquitlam, Surrey, and Nanaimo. While the Conservatives have fallen slightly behind the Liberals in the polls, Mr. Poilievre’s rallies still attract large crowds, and he primarily spent week one of the campaign visiting regions where the Conservatives need to win seats to form government. Thus, at least for now, he remains somewhat on the offensive.
While he responded to President Trump’s tariff announcement mid-week, Mr. Poilievre’s announcements to-date have focussed on the affordability issues he has performed well on with voters for months. Moreover, he proposed policies – a tax cut for seniors and an increase of the annual contribution limit for TFSAs – that may appeal to voters aged 50+; a key demographic in which the Conservatives currently trail the Liberals.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet held events this week in Montreal, Quebec City and in several nearby suburban areas. Some of his stops were in ridings currently held by the Bloc, suggesting a party that may be on the defensive. As the share of public support for the Bloc appears to be shrinking and moving to the Liberals, Mr. Blanchet has very much focussed his attention on campaigning against Mark Carney.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh spent the week in Ottawa, Montreal, Windsor, and Toronto – all urban locations where the NDP must retain seats to have a substantial presence in the next Parliament. The NDP’s announcements so far focused on positioning the party as the voice of working-class Canadians, and painting the Liberals and Conservatives as out-of-touch (particularly Mark Carney, highlighting his work at Brookfield).
What This Means to You
Especially given how close the election appears to be, there is ample time remaining in the campaign for the likely outcome to shift. However, at this point, the need for stakeholders to prepare priorities, strategies, and messaging for either a Conservative or Liberal government remains paramount. Of course, TSA is here to help.
