The Top Line
After what can only be described as a tumultuous week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau undertook a significant Cabinet shuffle today in an attempt to stabilize his administration amid escalating political challenges.
The week began with the resignation of Housing Minister Sean Fraser, which was closely followed by the surprising resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland just hours before she was scheduled to deliver the Fall Economic Statement.
Today’s shuffle ended up being mostly managerial: some backbench Liberal MPs were brought in to replace Ministers who had resigned in the past six months as well as those who had announced they were not running in the next election. Only a few existing Ministers changed portfolios.
The bigger news from today was a statement from NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh that his party will bring forward a non-confidence motion in the next session of Parliament, meaning all three main Opposition Parties are now committed to voting non-confidence in the Government.
In the face of this growing tumult and quickly changing dynamic, the Prime Minister has yet to take media questions to address Minister Freeland’s resignation and the growing calls from the Liberal caucus for him to resign. Other than two speeches to partisan Liberal audiences this week he has remained silent, meaning questions about his future will remain into the New Year.
Should the Prime Minister resign, we can almost certainly expect a prorogation of Parliament while a new Liberal leader is chosen. If the Prime Minister decides to stay, a Spring election seems inevitable at this point. In fact, a Spring/Summer election appears most likely, even with a new Liberal leader.
Cabinet Changes
Today’s Cabinet shuffle filled the roles opened by the resignations of Ministers Fraser and Freeland and the previous announcements of pending Cabinet departures for Ministers in core departments, including Employment and Social Development, Transport, National Revenue, and Northern Affairs.
While New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc has already filled Freeland’s role as Minister of Finance, this shuffle elevated several MPs who will take on new roles as the Government tries to navigate through a pre-election period – one in which they trail the Opposition Conservatives by over 20 percentage points in most polls.
New roles for existing Ministers are detailed below:
- Anita Anand becomes Minister of Transport and Internal Trade
- Gary Anandasangaree becomes Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs, and Minister responsible for the Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency
- Steven MacKinnon becomes Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Labour Development
- Ginette Petitpas Taylor becomes President of the Treasury Board
Several new Ministers were added to the Cabinet:
- Ontario MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith becomes Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities
- Ottawa MP David McGuinty becomes Minister of Public Safety.
- Quebec MP Rachel Bendayan becomes Minister of Official Languages and Associate Minister of Public Safety.
- Quebec MP Élisabeth Brière becomes the Minister of National Revenue
- Manitoba MP Terry Duguid becomes the Minister of Sport and Minister responsible for Prairies Economic Development Canada
- Nova Scotia MP Darren Fisher becomes Minister of Veteran’s Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence
- Newfoundland and Labrador MP Joanne Thompson becomes Minister of Seniors
- Ontario MP and outgoing Whip Ruby Sahota becomes the Minister Responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario and Minister of Democratic Institutions
What Didn’t Change
While today’s shuffle is large, several Ministers retained their previous responsibilities.
- Terry Beech, Minister of Citizens’ Services
- Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence
- François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry
- Jean-Yves Duclos, Minister of Public Services and Procurement and Quebec Lieutenant
- Karina Gould, Leader of the Government in the House of Commons
- Steven Guilbeault, Minister of Environment and Climate Change
- Patty Hajdu, Minister of Indigenous Services and Minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Northern Ontario
- Mark Holland, Minister of Health
- Ahmed Hussen, Minister of International Development
- Gudie Hutchings, Minister of Rural Economic Development and Minister responsible for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency
- Marci Ien, Minister for Women and Gender Equality and Youth
- Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs
- Kamal Khera, Minister of Diversity, Inclusion and Persons with Disabilities
- Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs
- Diane Lebouthillier, Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard
- Lawrence MacAulay, Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food
- Soraya Martinez Ferrada, Minister of Tourism and Minister responsible for the Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec
- Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship
- Mary Ng, Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development
- Harjit S. Sajjan, President of the King’s Privy Council for Canada and Minister of Emergency Preparedness and Minister responsible for the Pacific Economic Development Agency of Canada
- Ya’ara Saks, Minister of Mental Health and Addictions and Associate Minister of Health
- Pascale St-Onge, Minister of Canadian Heritage
- Jenna Sudds, Minister of Families, Children and Social Development
- Rechie Valdez, Minister of Small Business
- Arif Virani, Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada
- Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources
Opposition Reaction
Not surprisingly, Opposition members had some harsh words in reacting to today’s developments.
“It sounds harsh, but reshuffle or not, there is no longer a government in Ottawa at the dawn of a diplomatic and commercial crisis with the USA, despite being allies, partners and friends. We are all hostages to Justin Trudeau’s egocentric soap opera. We will work for Quebec with whoever is elected, but we need elections and a stable mandate.” Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchette
“The Liberals don’t deserve another chance. That’s why the NDP will vote to bring this government down, and give Canadians a chance to vote for a government who will work for them.” NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre responded to the NDP with the following:
“Just 11 days ago you voted against a non-confidence motion filled with your own words. Had you voted the other way, we’d be almost half-way through the election now. Only common sense Conservatives can and will replace this costly NDP-Liberal clown show.” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre
Implications
This Cabinet shuffle is an attempted strategic move by Prime Minister Trudeau to regain control and address the internal and external pressures facing his government. By appointing trusted allies like LeBlanc to key positions, Trudeau seeks to present a united front capable of navigating the economic challenges posed by potential U.S. tariffs and restoring confidence within his Party and the Canadian public.
His challenge is complicated by needing to (somehow) ensure support from his caucus while managing a government facing a united opposition committed to expressing that Parliament no longer has confidence in this Prime Minister’s Government.
Now that the Prime Minister has shuffled his Cabinet, he will have to decide whether he would like to stay on as Liberal Leader and Prime Minister. It appears the country will have to wait until the New Year to find out the answer. If he does decide to stay, there are extremely choppy waters ahead.
What This Means to You
Newly installed Ministers will meet their departmental teams in the coming days to be briefed on their new roles and the priorities they must address. We should expect considerable movement in senior ministerial staff, but the ability for Ministers to move forward quickly with departmental and government priorities will be important. The House of Commons is scheduled to return on January 27, giving new Ministers time to learn their portfolios. This date also falls one week after the swearing-in of President-elect Donald Trump. Given Opposition commitments to put forward non-confidence motions, the possibility of an election, prorogation and/or a possible Liberal leadership race are all very real for early 2025.
