The Top Line
This morning, Prime Minister Mark Carney asked the Governor General to dissolve Parliament, triggering Federal Election 2025. Election Day will occur on Monday, April 28.
As of today, the election looks to be a contest between the Liberals and Conservatives. Mr. Carney chose to go to the polls just over a week into his tenure as Prime Minister due to the rapid rebound in public support for the Liberals over the last two months, and because his minority government was likely facing defeat by the opposition parties in Parliament next week. Even though public support for the Liberals has rebounded, the Conservative Party’s popularity hasn’t substantially declined in that time, so the election is competitive on Day 1. Meanwhile, public support for all other parties has declined substantially in the past two months – though all of those parties could hold influence in the next Parliament if this election produces a minority government.
Key Messaging and Issues
Over the coming weeks, stakeholders should expect the following issues to dominate election debates and be the battlelines along which the Parties and their Leaders seek to differentiate themselves.
Canada – United States Relations: As the election campaign starts, President Trump, his administration’s tariffs, and his musings about Canada being the “51st state” loom large. Prime Minister Carney’s decision to go to an election at this time is predicated in large part on his eagerness to campaign on the topic of which Party and Leader can best respond to President Trump’s conduct. And with the Trump administration due to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on its trading partners on April 2, the topic is certain to be a defining issue of this election.
At his election-launching press conference, Mr. Carney characterized President Trump’s recent approach to Canada as the “most serious threat in our lifetime”. Over the coming weeks, Mr. Carney will portray himself as an experienced, knowledgeable global leader who can best lead Canada through that challenge. Meanwhile, Mr. Poilievre will position himself as a strong and unyielding leader who will be better able to withstand and push back on pressure and insults from Mr. Trump.
Affordability/Time for Change: While Canada – United States relations have redefined the landscape in Federal politics in recent weeks, a significant number of Canadians, particularly those under 40, continue to be upset with the cost of living, and associate that issue with the Liberal administration. Pierre Poilievre has politically owned the issues of affordability and the cost of living since he became the Conservative Leader. In the coming weeks, Mr. Poilievre will continue to push those topics and argue that the Liberals failed to properly address them. He will look to portray Prime Minister Carney as an elite, who does not understand Canadians’ struggles with the costs of everyday life. Mr. Poilievre will use this issue to remind Canadians that the Liberals have been in power for almost 10 years, and that a change in governing approach may be welcome.
Fiscal Policy: While Prime Minister Carney is more of a political centrist than his predecessor Justin Trudeau, there remains a gulf between how Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilievre claim they’ll approach public spending and the business of government.
Mr. Carney speaks about “driving efficiency in government”, but continues to see and pledge to pursue a large role for Federal government spending in certain sectors – including clean energy development, new trade corridors, and homebuilding – in order to help drive growth. Mr. Poilievre, by contrast, is intent on creating a much smaller government – taking a very light regulatory touch – that would stay out of the way of business investment, especially in sectors like natural resources development.
Resource Development and the Environment: The Conservative Party will look to make the election a referendum on Canada’s inability to get major resource developments approved and will try to tie Carney to the previous Liberal government’s environmental policies. Although the Carney government acted quickly to eliminate the consumer-facing portion of the Federal carbon tax, in an attempt to neutralize that issue as an election ballot box question, other climate change measures from the Trudeau government, including the output-based pricing system, remain as potential wedge issues in this policy area.
Differing Visions for Social Policy: Just prior to the election, the Liberal government announced its intention to expand the Canadian Dental Care Program to cover more Canadians aged 18-64, should it be re-elected. In the weeks leading up to the election, the Liberals also announced several Federal-Provincial pharmacare agreements. While Mr. Poilievre opposed Bill 64, the legislation that enacted the pharmacare program, he has been non-committal on the future of the dental care program. Look for the Liberals to use these kinds of social programs as a “wedge” issue in the campaign, in the hopes that some voters will value those benefits at the ballot box.
What This Means to You
During the coming campaign, stakeholders should develop customized priorities, strategies, and messaging for any election outcome, ranging from a Conservative majority/minority to a Liberal majority/minority. Making things even more uncertain, if a minority Parliament were to result from this election, current polling suggests the Bloc Québecois and/or potentially multiple opposition parties would hold the balance of power in Parliament.
During the election, TSA will publish weekly analyses that will help you prepare for those dynamics.
