The Top Line
This week, the issue of Canada – U.S. relations somewhat took a back seat in the Federal election, and the Party leaders used that opportunity to campaign on policy areas in which they feel they can demonstrate strength and highlight weaknesses of the other parties (housing, natural resource development, and crime for the Conservatives; energy and environment for the Liberals; and housing and healthcare for the NDP).
Despite that jockeying on policy issues, the state of the election remains unchanged from the past two weeks. During week 3 of the campaign, some polls did show a tightening of public support between the Liberals and Conservatives, but other polls continued to show a healthy Liberal lead. In that context, a peak of Liberal support may have been reached, while the Conservatives might be rebounding. However, the regional breakdowns of all recent polls still show the Liberals on an easier path to forming government, due particularly to high levels of support in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario.
The most obvious opportunity for the Conservatives to change that dynamic is the national televised leader debates (April 16, French, and April 17, English). As a rookie politician facing a very seasoned, rhetorically skilled debater in Pierre Poilievre, the debates stand out as a potential stumbling block for Prime Minister Carney. Notably, the televised leader debates were turning points in the 2015 and 2021 Federal elections.
As the election campaign enters its back half, the pace of events and major announcements (e.g., the televised debates, publication of full party policy platforms, and advance poll voting weekend) will quicken. In that context, some or all of the parties will shift messaging and tactics in response to their position in the race. Indeed, the NDP has already done that, spotlighting messaging that acknowledges it can’t win the election, and focusing its campaign on getting incumbent Members of Parliament (MPs) re-elected.
Leaders’ Week in Review
Liberal Leader Mark Carney campaigned in Victoria, Calgary, Saskatoon, Brampton, and Hamilton this week. In particular early in the week, it was notable that Mr. Carney was campaigning in areas of the country that currently have minimal Liberal presence – though the Liberal Party evidently thinks it can change that on Election Day. Today, the Prime Minister paused his campaigning for a third time to convene the Federal Cabinet Committee on Canada – U.S. relations, in response to the latest change in the Trump Administration’s tariff rates.
Recent Liberal policy proposals included a commitment on nature, biodiversity, and water protection, an energy sector plan – comprised of pledges to support the development of conventional and clean energy and critical minerals through both Federal funding and infrastructure, and a public safety announcement largely emphasizing gun control and combating organized crime.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre campaigned in British Columbia and Alberta early in the week, notably including a very large and highly-attended rally in the Edmonton area, before returning to Ontario (Sault Ste. Marie, Brampton, Milton/Kitchener. St. Catharines, and Windsor) in recent days.
This week, policy announcements made by Mr. Poilievre focussed on housing affordability and crime – two areas where the Conservatives feel they can make an effective argument that the Liberal government failed. Early in the week, the Conservatives also highlighted a plan to speed-up natural resources development by creating a “one-stop shop” project review and approval process, including a single environmental review. Yesterday, the Conservative Party published a round-up of all its campaign economic and tax policy commitments to-date, which stakeholders should refer to as a key document in the event of a Conservative election victory.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet spent the vast majority of this week in Montréal and surrounding areas, almost entirely in ridings (including his own) that are already held by Bloc MPs.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh spent the week in Toronto, Vancouver, Saskatoon, and Ottawa – all urban areas in which the NDP must win seats in order to preserve a functional role in the next Parliament. NDP policy announcements made this week focussed on housing affordability and pharmacare – recent areas of strength for the Party.
With each of the Bloc and NDP facing historically low support in public polling, both parties have transitioned their campaigns to focussing on the role that their parties could play as the balance of power in a minority Parliament. The NDP in particular has dramatically shifted its campaign messaging to pitching voters on re-electing incumbent NDP MPs, and to arguing those MPs are crucial to delivering progressive policies that benefit everyday Canadians. Meanwhile, the Bloc has begun stressing (even more) that it is the party that understands and will represent Québec’s interests in Parliament.
What This Means to You
As of the publication of this note, none of the Conservative, Liberal, or NDP parties have released a full policy platform. TSA expects them to do so before or simultaneously to the national televised leader debates.
As of today, the Liberals are leading in the polls, however, the high impact that relatively small shifts in support for the various parties can have means this election is still up for grabs. Therefore, stakeholders should continue to monitor the election closely over the coming week (into advance poll weekend), and should be alert to opportunities and threats stemming from the Conservative and Liberal platforms.
