By: Brian Klunder, Senior Counsel
After one week of campaigning, we continue to see the Liberals in front in polling and in my seat projection. Upward momentum for Mark Carney and the Liberal Party corresponds very closely to continuing downward momentum for the NDP. At 38% in my polling average, the Conservatives are overperforming their 2021 result by more than four percentage points – which, unfortunately for them, still places them more than 4% behind the Liberal Party.
This NDP fall is the early story of the campaign. With NDP support moving primarily to the Liberals – it has helped put the Liberal Party in a position to win a significant majority government, as outlined in the insight analysis below. This week, I examine the NDP fall and its impact on specific NDP seats across the country. For the NDP, this is potentially devastating. Should they be able to regain some of their traditional support, it could also impact which of the Liberals or Conservatives forms the government.
Seat Projection (majority requires 172 seats)
After week 1, the Liberal Party now sees itself in a comfortable majority position in my projection. With 187 projected seats, the Liberals can win seats in every province and dominate seat counts in the Atlantic, Ontario and Quebec. They also have a majority of seats in B.C. The Conservatives, projected to win 127 seats (a gain of 8 from 2021), have clear leads in Alberta and the Prairie provinces. My projection shows both the NDP and Bloc losing seats, with the NDP projected to win only 8 seats (down from the 25 they won in 2021), and the Bloc winning 20 seats (down from the 32 they won in 2021). Pierre Poilievre needs to hope both parties can regain support to shrink the Liberal seat margin.
Ridings to Watch
As noted below, the NDP can win in some ridings where local candidates have built strong followings. Something we also saw in the Ontario campaign in February. In B.C., we see urban New Democrats losing to Liberals and rural New Democrats losing to Conservatives. The NDP is getting squeezed out in multiple B.C. ridings as they fall from winning 13 seats in the 2021 election to only one projected win (Jenny Kwan in Vancouver East) in 2025.
Outlined below are some key NDP seats to watch as we begin week 2.
Rosemont – La Petite-Patrie, QC – Alexandre Boulerice is the last surviving NDP member in Quebec from Jack Layton’s Orange Wave in 2011. He appears to be heading to another victory in 2025 with an 11-point lead over the Liberals.
Hamilton Centre, ON – Hamilton Centre is a NDP bastion in Canada’s steel-making heartland. Currently, I see Matthew Green holding the seat for the NDP, but the Liberals are within striking distance and well-positioned to make this a very close finish.
London – Fanshawe, ON – London – Fanshawe has also become a traditional NDP seat in the city of London. Lindsay Mathyssen took over the seat from her mother and has comfortably held it – winning in 2021 by almost 10,000 votes. We are seeing the NDP barely hanging on to the seat for now – but they are in a close three-way race with the Conservatives and Liberals.
Churchill – Keewatinook Aski, MB – Churchill is a massive geographic riding covering Northern Manitoba. Niki Ashton has been the long-term NDP MP for the and appears to be holding on to her seat. We will see if this changes as the campaign develops.
Winnipeg Centre, MB – Another traditionally safe NDP seat where the Liberal Party is threatening to break the NDP’s hold. This race is extremely tight, with the Liberals maintaining a very small lead.
Edmonton Strathcona, AB – Heather McPherson won more than 60% of the vote in 2021. She appears to be set to be re-elected with a comfortable margin over the Liberals and Conservatives.
New Westminster – Burnaby – Maillardville, B.C. – Last week, we discussed Jagmeet Singh’s projected loss in Burnaby Central. This week, we look at Peter Julian, an NDP Caucus leader, who is running well behind the Liberals in another Burnaby area riding.
North Island – Powell River, B.C. – Rachel Blaney has held this Northern Vancouver Island seat since 2015 but decided not to re-contest the seat in 2025. It appears this decision is saving her from a loss as the Conservatives currently have a comfortable lead.
Skeena – Bulkley Valley, B.C. – Here is another example of the Conservatives benefiting from the NDP collapse to gain a seat from the NDP by defeating incumbent NDP MP Taylor Bachrach.
National Polling Average (%)
Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre are both leading their parties to a higher share of votes than their parties won in either 2019 or 2021. In most elections, the Conservatives winning over 37% of the vote would result in a comfortable Conservative win and a possible majority. However, the Liberals have gained votes, largely at the expense of the NDP, and continue to lead polls from Ontario East and have taken the polling lead in B.C. They are also running stronger than they traditionally do in Alberta, which has them currently projected to win four seats in the province. All of this adds up to a healthy Liberal majority should these results hold through to Election Day.
What It Means
While Canadians are still learning about Mark Carney, the election appears to be turning into a referendum on whether Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre is the best person to lead Canada during a challenging trade dispute with the United States. The Conservatives are not out of this fight and have a real chance to win, but to do so, they must also hope both the NDP and Bloc begin taking votes back from the Liberals. We have four weeks to go, and no doubt this will be a fight through to the end.
Methodology – The TSA Seat projection is calculated based on publicly released polls over the previous week. Each riding result is based on the results of the 2019 and 2021 elections and transposed to the new seat boundaries. Thanks to the work Phillipe Fournier has done at 338Canada to transpose votes for both 2019 and 2021. Riding results are compared to regional results in 2019 and 2021 to calculate a projected result for each riding.
