By: Brian Klunder, Senior Counsel
With the March 9th Liberal leadership vote fast approaching, the race to replace Justin Trudeau is shaping up to be a defining moment for the party. With four candidates in the running—Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, Karina Gould and Frank Baylis—the outcome will determine not just the next leader but how the party positions itself heading into the next federal election.
Who Has the Edge?
Mark Carney holds a lead in the polls, but it’s not that simple. The Liberal leadership race is decided by a points system—each riding is worth 100 points, regardless of membership size. That means strong support in low-membership ridings can carry as much weight as winning big urban centers.
Both Carney and Freeland have deep experience in international relations and within economic policy development. Carney has distinguished himself in the Leadership race with his fundraising ability—raising nearly $2 million so far. Gould, while less known nationally, represents a younger generation of Liberals and could surprise if she has a strong debate performance. Baylis appeals to specific segments of the party but is unlikely to garner the same level of support.
Key Issues That Will Define the Race
The next leader must demonstrate a capacity to navigate the Canada-U.S. relationship effectively while maintaining a strong, independent stance that resonates with voters. The re-emergence of President Trump has also turned the page on the election being a referendum on Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax. Although the next Leader will need to define what the Liberal Party is in a post-Trudeau era, economic growth, job creation and trade diversification will be at the forefront of any policy debate.
Climate and energy policy is another area where the candidates must present a fresh approach. The carbon tax, once a signature Liberal policy, has become a political liability, with Carney, Gould and Freeland all backing away from the consumer facing side of the carbon tax to differing extents. The Liberal Party itself also needs to reconnect with voters who have drifted away in recent elections.
Overall, the new leader will need to outline how they intend to rejuvenate the party, energize its base, and offer a compelling alternative to the Conservative narrative.
Snap Election or Wait?
One of the biggest decisions the new leader will face is whether to call an election immediately or hold off. If Carney wins, he may want to capitalize on momentum and go to the polls before prorogation concludes on March 24. But he doesn’t have a seat in the House, meaning he’d have to campaign from outside Parliament. Freeland, on the other hand, may want to hold off, and focus on addressing the U.S. tariff threat before going to voters. To do so, she will need the support of Jagmeet Singh and the NDP who have repeatedly stated that their intention is to vote non-confidence in the government upon Parliament’s return.
A quick election call could work in the Liberals’ favor if the Conservatives message adjustment struggles to resonate with voters or if the new Liberal leader is able to build an immediate connection with voters. On the other hand, delaying could allow the new leader to establish a stronger platform, recruit high-profile candidates, and ensure the party is fully prepared for what will likely be a hard-fought campaign against Pierre Poilievre, who has proven himself to be a highly effective campaigner. He has been highly effective in critiquing the Liberals on affordability and economic issues, and the new leader will need to counter with a clear, compelling vision that resonates with Canadians beyond the Liberal base.
Looking Ahead
With just weeks to go, the leadership race is still fluid. The debates, endorsements, and last-minute shifts will all play a role. But more than anything, this isn’t just about picking a new leader—it’s about deciding the future of the Liberal Party and how it plans to take on the Conservatives in a high-stakes election. There is still time for movement in this race, and as history has shown, surprises can and do happen in leadership contests. Whether the party leans toward a steady, experienced hand in Freeland, a fresh economic approach with Carney, or a younger, grassroots-driven vision with Gould, the next few weeks will be decisive.
Whoever wins will immediately be faced with the challenge of uniting the party, sharpening a clear election message, and positioning the Liberals as a viable governing option in the face of Conservative momentum. And with President Trump’s policies putting direct pressure on Canada, the next Liberal leader will need to be ready to respond in real-time to both domestic and international challenges.
